Recently, the Powerball jackpot broke through the
half-billion dollar mark. This seems to be a trigger point for many “fair
weather” lottery players. But how can you be assured of winning? At first
glance, the odds do seem to be stacked against you. Any math major can tell you
that your chances of winning are about 175 million to one. Clearly this is not
the way to look at the situation, is it?
Why do people play the lottery, given that their chances
of winning are indistinguishable from zero? We all like to believe that we are
special. Magic, even. So our dollar ticket will be the winning ticket. Somebody
has to win, so why not me? After all, what’s one dollar, anyway?
The very nature of the “only one dollar” thinking is the
reason that the lottery is so disproportionally tough on poor people. Nobody
thinks that a dollar can change their life, except if it is spent for a lottery
ticket. Most people, when asked, would say that they wouldn't spend $50 on a
lottery ticket. But the same people are very willing to buy a $1 ticket every
week of the year.
So how can you win the lottery? Clearly buying
175,000,000 tickets isn't the road to riches. A mathematician will tell you
that even that drastic strategy is not a guarantee of success. Picking numbers
that haven’t been pulled in a long time doesn't really work either. Having a
coin land heads-up 50 times in a row doesn't mean that the next flip must be
heads. You still have a 50/50 chance of heads. That’s the cruel truth of
probability.
How can you absolutely be sure to maximize your winnings
in the lottery. Spend the buck on a donut. Then you are assured of a happy
outcome. But good luck anyway!
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